BYU @ Utah: Josh's prediction

It all comes down to this. BYU vs. Utah. Light vs. Darkness. Apple vs. Microsoft. F-86 vs. MiG-15. The age-old clash of good vs. evil plays out this Saturday afternoon at Rice Chex...er, I mean, Rice-Eccles Stadium, home of the Runnin' Utes. Whom exactly they're running from remains unclear. Possibly their bishop. Possibly a Mormon cricket. (Have you seen the size of those things? I'd run, too!)

At any rate, the trash talk will end and the hitting will begin in just two days, and I suppose I should offer a prediction. I have to say, I don't have much of a gut feeling about this. But I'm definitely nervous. The Vegas oddsmakers have No. 7 Utah as a 6-point favorite over No. 14 BYU. On the surface, they've probably got it right. Utah is undefeated, including a close win over TCU--the same TCU that throttled BYU 32-7 last month. BYU's defense never really returned from their bye week at the September, forcing QB Max Hall and the offense to carry the load for the past month or so. Plus, the game is at Utah, and home field advantage is usually good for a touchdown or two. Then again, Utah's Coach Whittingham supposedly only dresses 25 players for Utah's home games. Apparently the rest have to dress themselves...(ba-doom-boom-BING).

That being said, Utah isn't invincible. They did beat Michigan on the road, but Michigan's team hasn't been this bad in 40 years. They did beat Oregon State and TCU, but those were both close wins, at home, that they probably would have lost at a neutral site or on the road. They squeaked by New Mexico and Air Force teams that BYU beat convincingly. Then again, BYU squeaked by the same Colorado State and UNLV teams that Utah beat convincingly. Still, I think Utah's undefeated record tells us more about their relatively weak schedule than about how amazing their team is. If BYU had had TCU and Oregon State at home this year, we probably would have beaten them, too, and then it would be Utah coming into this game as the underdog.

This particular game has been circled on the calendar for a long time. Back in the summer, BYU was everyone's BCS-buster darling, and sportswriters across the country looked forward to the prospect of a Top-10, undefeated Cougars squad going up to Salt Lake to take on undefeated Utah. Instead, those roles have reversed themselves, and now BYU is trying to play the spoiler. The past 2 years, BYU was favored to win, and a respectable Utah team almost pulled off the upset. This time, Utah is "supposed" to win. The last time BYU was the underdog, in 2004, they lost 52-21 to the best team in Utah's history--a team that went on to crash the BCS, win the Fiesta Bowl, and send its quarterback to the NFL as the No. 1 overall pick.

But this isn't 2004, and this year's Utes aren't that good. They have a solid defense and an offense that shows flashes of brilliance. But they are mortal. BYU should be able to score on those guys. The real question is, can BYU's defense stop Utah? After pitching 2 1/2 shutouts earlier in the season, the Cougar defense hasn't looked all that intimidating. But they showed signs of life against San Diego State, and against Air Force last week. I think the game will hinge on BYU's defensive performance. I think BYU can put up points on Utah. The question is, can the Cougar defense hold Utah under 40?

I'm going to take a leap of faith and say yes. In a game that will keep Wasatch Front cardiologists in business for years to come, BYU's defense does just enough to win. BYU 38 Utah 37. Blocked kick, anyone?