It's time for me to stick my neck out and make a prediction for tonight's showdown between #8 BYU and the TCU Horned Frogs (yes, that's really their mascot).
The Breakdown
BYU is obviously favored in this game (that #8 has got to count for something), but it's actually going to be close. I've heard that Vegas oddsmakers are only making BYU a 1.5 point favorite tonight. TCU is a very good team--they've only lost once, and that was to the formerly #1 University of Oklahoma. TCU's run defense and total defense are the best in the country, statistically, and they are a fast, athletic team. On the other hand, BYU's offense is one of the top units on the country, and no team yet has proven that they can shut down all of BYU's weapons. The closest anyone came was New Mexico last week, who tried a strategy of running most of the game, eating up the clock and keeping BYU's offense off the field for long stretches. They still lost 21-3.
The game is at TCU, and it's on a short week (both teams played on Saturday). BYU generally does well on Thursday night games, although it does lessen the time that the team has to practice. In BYU's 2 previous road games, they didn't look nearly as sharp as they do at home. These factors work against the Cougars.
However, something also has to be said about the psychology of the team--the past 3 games BYU played were against really bad, and BYU's offensive coordinator, Robert Anae, played a pretty vanilla gameplan, and didn't really exploit the full potential of the team--maybe on purpose, in order to keep future opponents in the dark about what the team can do. The last time BYU faced a truly dangerous team, they beat UCLA 59-0 while using lots of new formations and tactics that UCLA just wasn't prepared for. One can hope that they have a similar plan in place for tonight.
The Prediction
It's probably going to be a close, relatively low-scoring, hard-fought game, and I'm going to be nervous until the very end. But I can't vote against Bronco Mendenhall's team, not as well as they're coached and as good as their players are. I'll call this one BYU 27 TCU 20.
The game will be televised nationally on VERSUS, starting at 5:00 Pacific time.
2 comments:
Adam just checked the score at the half...and I'm really hoping BYU comes back with those 27 points you were talking about. I know what you mean about the TCU mascot...they used to be in Conference USA when we (U of Louisville) were, and everytime they said "horned frogs" I got the weirdest picture in my head. But hey, it could be worse...they could be the "hokies."
I hear your predictions went awry! Sorry! I was really hoping the Cougars would have a perfect season this year...
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