BYU vs. UNLV: Josh's prediction

Well, as luck would have it, the first of what I meant to become a regular feature on this blog--namely my BYU football score predictions--didn't go so well last week. Personally I blame George W. Bush. After all, he's apparently responsible for everything from the stock market crash to the subprime mortgage crisis to rising oil prices to Hurricane Katrina (he was dynamiting the levees, was he not?), and even the 9/11 attacks. At least that's what the TV says. And who am I to argue with TV?

So I have no doubt that BYU's pathetic, uninspired performance last week was a direct result of Pres. George W. Bush, who personally gave up 4 sacks, missed tackles all over the field, threw interceptions that gave TCU short fields, missed a field goal, failed to convert on 4th down, and played like an unemotional robot who thought that showing up was all it takes to win. Thank goodness Bush's term is almost over--I don't think BYU football could survive his contributions for another 4 years...

So, now that I've designated a worthy scapegoat for last week's performance, let's move on to the subject at hand: UNLV. UNLV is traditionally the Mountain West's whipping boy--except when they play BYU. Although their record over the past decade or so is abysmal--something like 20-30% win percentage--they always play BYU tough.

In 2000, my freshman year, BYU managed to eke out a 10-7 win at home (that was the game where my roommates had to explain to me that when a football team moves the ball 10 yards, they get another 4 tries to score--UNLV completed a 4th down, and I was incensed that they got another try...I had a lot to learn about football back then).

The next year, BYU was losing 28-31 at the end of the 4th quarter, but managed to score a touchdown with like a minute to go to win. How UNLV managed to hold one of BYU's all-time greatest offenses (Brandon Doman, Luke Staley, Reno Mahe) to 35 points that year is beyond me, but they did.

Since then, UNLV won in 2002 and 2004, and BYU won in 2003 (in overtime), 2005, and 2006. Last year, BYU reverted back to its usual form against UNLV--it only won 24-14, after lots of turnovers in the 1st half and a slow, boring, but ultimately effective running game in the 2nd half. Geneil and I drove all the way to Vegas for that game, and ultimately were treated to a pretty sloppy performance.

This year, UNLV brings a surprisingly potent offense with them to Provo. Last month, UNLV upset then #17 or so Arizona State, and they played Utah tough later on. They have a dual-threat quarterback, and as TCU showed last week, running QBs are one of the best ways to defeat the Cougar defense.

BYU is coming off a physical and emotional beating, which could work one of two ways--either BYU will be really ticked off and will beat the living daylights out of UNLV, or else they will come out sluggish, depressed, and still coming to terms with a nasty loss that pretty much closes the door on a BCS bowl, and even puts a Vegas Bowl berth in jeopardy. This is what happened last year when they lost to Tulsa, after a tough loss at UCLA the previous week.

I predict a good dose of the latter. Historically, BYU is an emotionally fragile team--one loss tends to lead to another. This is what happened in 2001, when they dropped the last 2 games of the season after winning 12 in a row. The really hard thing is, it's probably hard for BYU to get excited to play UNLV, or anyone else on their schedule between now and Utah. BYU will be favored to win each game, which means that if they win, no one cares, but if the lose, then it counts as a big upset for the other side. For UNLV, BYU is their bowl game, unless they manage to get themselves bowl-eligible by the end of the season. They will come ready to play, and TCU has now provided UNLV (and the rest of BYU's future opponents) with 3 hours of game film showing how to take the Cougars apart.

I predict a BYU win, but it won't be pretty. UNLV will play hard, and BYU will be hard-pressed to match UNLV's intensity. Fortunately, UNLV, as much as they've improved, is just not as good as TCU, and BYU's home field advantage is usually good for a touchdown or two.

BYU 38 UNLV 24. BYU puts them away in the 4th quarter.